


The global B2B wholesale travel distribution market is being remade from the inside out — and the incumbents building today's roadmaps around GDS economics are optimizing for a shrinking pie.
The market reached an estimated USD 80.35 Bn in 2025, up from USD 52.18 Bn in 2022 — a 15.5% CAGR driven by the tailwind of post-pandemic demand normalization. That tailwind is now fading. Our forecast puts the market at USD 170.49 Bn by 2031, a 13.4% CAGR through the period — still robust, but the 210-bps deceleration is not noise. It marks a regime change: growth is shifting from volume recovery to architectural substitution.
The core dynamic: distribution power is migrating from intermediated fare buckets to direct, protocol-native connectivity.
NDC is the structural disruptor, not a niche segment. The NextGen NDC Protocol pool is projected to grow 4x, from USD 8.70 Bn (2024) to USD 34.11 Bn (2031) — and in doing so, will compress GDS's share of the total market from 28.0% (2022) to 21.1% (2031). This is not gradual erosion; it is a compounding annual share transfer of roughly 100 bps, and it accelerates as airline and hotelier API investment reaches critical mass.
The winners will be platforms that arbitrage the transition, not resist it. Bedbank and hotel wholesale consolidators are already positioning to capture margin from fragmented regional inventory — a hedge against GDS disintermediation rather than a bet against it.
Base-effect normalization explains the headline deceleration, but masks a bifurcated reality underneath: legacy GDS channels face margin compression, while API-driven and NDC channels are compounding volume gains that will outpace the blended market average for the balance of the decade.
Europe's market share was 34–36% in 2025, anchored by GDS infrastructure concentration, Hotelbeds' Mallorca-based bedbank dominance, and a mature OTA ecosystem. This is a defensible but low-growth incumbency position.
The strategic imperative for 2025–2026: Every participant in this value chain — GDS operators, bedbanks, airlines, hoteliers, and OTAs — is now being forced to choose a side of the distribution architecture divide. Those who delay that choice risk optimizing legacy infrastructure for a shrinking share of a growing market.
List of Exhibits
Exhibit 2.1: Forecast of Global Market YoY Growth Rate & CAGR Summary (in %)
Exhibit 2.2: Forecast of Global (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 2.3: Forecast of North America (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 2.4: Forecast of Europe (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 2.5: Forecast of Asia Pacific (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 2.6: Forecast of Latin America (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 2.7: Forecast of MEA (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.8: Forecast of GDS-Based Wholesale Distribution (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.9: Forecast of Amadeus GDS Wholesale (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.10: Forecast of Sabre GDS Wholesale (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.11: Forecast of Travelport GDS Wholesale (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.12: Forecast of Other GDS Participants (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.13: Forecast of API-Driven Direct Connect Platforms (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.14: Forecast of REST/JSON API Connectivity Hubs (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.15: Forecast of White-Label API Reseller Platforms (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.16: Forecast of Aggregator-to-Aggregator API Exchanges (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.17: Forecast of NextGen NDC Protocol Distribution (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.18: Forecast of Airline NDC Level 4 Certified Channels (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.19: Forecast of NDC Aggregator Middleware Providers (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.20: Forecast of NDC-Enabled OTA & TMC Connections (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.21: Forecast of Bedbank & Hotel Wholesale Aggregation (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.22: Forecast of Global Bedbank Platforms (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.23: Forecast of Regional Hotel Wholesale Aggregators (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.24: Forecast of Vacation Rental & Alternative Accommodation Wholesale (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.25: Forecast of Ground Transport & Transfers Wholesale (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.26: Forecast of Airport Transfer & Shuttle Wholesale (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.27: Forecast of Car Rental B2B Wholesale (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 3.28: Forecast of Rail & Coach Wholesale Distribution (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.29: Forecast of Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) & Meta-Search Platforms (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.30: Forecast of Full-Service OTA B2B Portals (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.31: Forecast of Meta-Search B2B Feed Aggregation (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.32: Forecast of Niche & Vertical OTA Platforms (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.33: Forecast of Retail Travel Agents & Consortia Networks (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.34: Forecast of Independent Travel Agencies (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.35: Forecast of Consortia & Cooperative Networks (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.36: Forecast of Franchise Travel Agency Groups (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.37: Forecast of Airline & Hotel Direct Retailing Programs (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.38: Forecast of Airline B2B Direct Offer Distribution (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.39: Forecast of Hotel Chain Direct B2B Rate Programs (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.40: Forecast of Ancillary & Retailing Upsell Platforms (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.41: Forecast of Tour Operators & Package Travel Wholesalers (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.42: Forecast of Outbound Tour Operators (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.43: Forecast of Inbound & Destination Management Companies (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.44: Forecast of Dynamic Packaging Wholesalers (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.45: Forecast of Corporate Travel Management Companies (TMCs) (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.46: Forecast of Global TMC Networks (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.47: Forecast of Regional & Mid-Market TMCs (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 4.48: Forecast of Self-Booking Tool Integrators (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.49: Forecast of North America (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.50: Forecast of USA (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.51: Forecast of Canada (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.52: Forecast of Rest of North America (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.53: Forecast of Europe (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.54: Forecast of Germany (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.55: Forecast of the United Kingdom (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.56: Forecast of France (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.57: Forecast of Italy (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.58: Forecast of Spain (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.59: Forecast of Rest of Europe (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.60: Forecast of MEA (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.61: Forecast of Rest of MEA (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.62: Forecast of Asia Pacific (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.63: Forecast of China (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.64: Forecast of India (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.65: Forecast of Japan (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.66: Forecast of South Korea (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.67: Forecast of Australia (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.68: Forecast of Rest of Asia Pacific (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.69: Forecast of Latin America (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.70: Forecast of Brazil (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.71: Forecast of Mexico (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.72: Forecast of Colombia (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.73: Forecast of Rest of Latin America (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.74: Forecast of MEA Market YoY Growth Rate & CAGR Summary (in %)
Exhibit 6.75: Forecast of Saudi Arabia (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.76: Forecast of UAE (in USD Bn)
Exhibit 6.77: Forecast of South Africa (in USD Bn)
Amadeus IT Group, Sabre Corporation, Travelport, HBX Group (Hotelbeds), Web Travel Group (WebBeds), Expedia Group (B2B Segment), TBO Holidays, Booking Holdings B2B, Duffel Technologies, Verteil Technologies
*If Applicable.